The Coming Civil War

The new South Africa, similar to the old, is a country of active racial volcanos and social unrest, which for now, is buried under the blanket of constitutional democracy. With the infusion of economicngrievances and new political ideology, these volcanos are erupting more frequently, and are increasing in magnitude. Besides the country being one of the most unequal, racially and politically fragmented nations, her blood -tainted history, and unsettled scores of the past are still haunting her. A civil war is lurking in her streets, waiting for an opportunity to unleash an unimagined scale of violence along racial lines. For a number of reasons, fate has set the past and the present on a collision course.

Through the lens of history, economics, political ideology and scientific models, the author not only establishes the imminence of the coming war, but also sheds light on the pressure reliefs that have helped delay it. As the author thrillingly reveals, there are distinguishable patterns, triggers and ideologies that have marked civil wars in Africa and around the world.

South Africa finds herself in the same trajectory. Africa is full of tales that recount how a seemingly peaceful afternoon suddenly erupted into the helpless wielding of machetes and AK47s. The ability of South Africa to avoid war is an anomaly that has run out of luck. As the country dominated the international news during the transition to democracy, it is about to make headlines all over the world when this war gets underway.

This coming war also speaks to the inherent weakness of negotiated settlements to bring lasting peace. The 1994 transitional 'miracle' is out of steam, and new actors, drunk in Marxist and Nazi ideology can no longer be pacified by moderate government interventions.